From Birdsong Metrics to Ancient Arctic DNA: Selected Publications from the 1st Quarter, 2014

In the first quarter of 2014, researchers at The Environment Institute have published on a vast array of topics, from Ancient DNA in the Arctic, to birdsongs to  recommendations for improvements to guidelines such as the Ecological Footprint in order to better inform policy makers.

A selection of these publications is listed below.

1. Fifty thousand years of Arctic vegetation and megafaunal diet. Nature
Research into the type of vegetation present during the last 50 thousand years in the Arctic is presented. Rather than using fossilised pollen as the main source of data as has been the case for previous studies, this study used plant and nematode DNA from sites across the Arctic. This data brings into question the diet of megafauna such as the woolly mammoth.

2. Distribution and Diversity of Soil Microfauna from East Antarctica: Assessing the Link between Biotic and Abiotic Factors. PLOS ONE
An investigation into soil microfauna composition, abundance, and distribution in East Antarctica. The study found that where a population exists is likely to be determined by soil geochemistry.

3. Higher Levels of Multiple Paternities Increase Seedling Survival in the Long-Lived Tree Eucalyptus gracilis. PLOS ONE
Data from populations of Eucalyptus gracilis (white mallee or yorrell) across the Murray-Darling Basin in southern Australia was collected in order to gain an understanding of how local environments affect seed quality.

4. Rapid deforestation threatens mid‐elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations. Biodiversity Research
The effect of deforestation and climate change on bird communities in Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia was investigated. The National Park is a globally important hotspot of avian endemism, and has lost almost 12% of its forest in the decade of 2000-2010.

5. Does the Shoe Fit? Real versus Imagined Ecological Footprints. PLOS BIOLOGY
This article seeks to demonstrate that “Ecological Footprint” measurements as currently constructed and presented misleading and cannot be used effectively in any serious science or policy context. Outlined are a set of principles that any ecological indicator should be based on in order to be scientifically sound and relevant for use in decision making.

6. Historical changes in mean trophic level of southern Australian fisheries. Marine and Freshwater Research
It is suggested that care in interpretation of mean trophic level (MTL) of catches should be taken because reductions do not necessarily reflect change in species high on the food chain by fishing pressure. They found that the change in MTL is mainly attributable to large catches of sardines.

7. Ecology Needs a Convention of Nomenclature. BioScience
A convention of ecological nomenclature as well as a transnational institution to manage it is proposed, in order to overcome the synonymy and polysemy across disciplines, which currently handicaps the progress of ecology.

8.Emerging Challenges for the Drinking Water Industry Environmental Science & Technology
Three principles that underpin alternative water source choices are introduced: Reliability, thresholds and future projections of water quality and quantity.

9. The evolution of lncRNA repertoires and expression patterns in tetrapods. Nature
The first large-scale evolutionary study of long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) repertoires and expression patterns in eleven tetrapod species is presented. About 400 highly conserved lncRNA’s (of more than 10 000 identified) probably originated an astonishing 300 million years ago at least.

10. Direct evidence for organic carbon preservation as clay-organic nanocomposites in a Devonian black shale; from deposition to diagenesis Earth and Planetary Science Letters
The temperature and oxygenation of the oceans are influenced by one of the most fundamental biogeochemical processes on Earth-the burial of organic carbon in marine sediments. This buried organic carbon also comprises the primary source of hydrocarbons. This paper presents research into the composition of Woodford Shale.

11. A guide to southern temperate seagrasses (Book, CSIRO Publishing)
A reference guide to the diverse seagrasses present in the ocean of the temperate parts of the southern hemisphere. Evolution, biology and ecology of the seagrasses is introduced. This book allows readers to rapidly identify a particular species, including those often confused with others.

12. A Potential Metric of the Attractiveness of Bird Song to Humans. Ethology
Bird species such as the common nightingale and European blackbird have songs that are known to have inspired classical music. Developing a metric for these songs might help identify birds that are present in international bird trade which could contribute to studies of invasion and conservation biology.

13. Genetics in conservation management: Revised recommendations for the 50/500 rules, Red List criteria and population viability analyses. Biological Conservation
A review of recent theoretical and empirical evidence concludes that the population rules for minimising inbreeding and for maintaining evolutionary potential in perpetuity need to be at least doubled and sections of the IUCN Red List criteria require revision, to be more effective conservation tools.

Research Tuesdays: “Where will we source our Energy?” presentation now online

The latest Research Tuesdays presentation Where will we source our energy? is now online. This was a special end of year event featuring five panellists, including Professor Barry Brook, Director of Climate Science at the Environment Institute.

The topic of this presentation is particularly pertinent after last weeks heatwave, during which blackouts were experienced across the country due to high demand for power. The cost of running air-conditioning in what are predicted to be more frequent heatwaves is an issue that will inevitably also focus our attention further to exactly where we will source our energy from in the future.

Other members of the expert panel included Professor Graham “Gus” Nathan, mechanical engineer and founding Director of the University of Adelaide’s Centre for Energy Technology as well as Associate Professor David Lewis (PhD CEng FIChemE), a chemical engineer in the University of Adelaide’s School of Chemical Engineering.

city lights

Flickr: Ralph Walker

Barry Brook wins prestigious Scopus award.

Professor Barry Brook Professor Barry Brook, one of our leaders at the Environment Institute has won the Life Sciences category of the 2013 Scopus Young Researcher Awards.

The Scopus award recognizes researchers under the age of 40 for their output, impact and contribution to their field. Recently, Barry’s work has focused on climate change and biodiversity loss.

Not only has Barry authored over 240 papers, he is in the top 0.1% of cited scientists in environmental and ecology research in the past decade and has attracted more than $18M in funding.

On top of producing all this work, Barry is dedicated to science communication and outreach. His blog Brave New Climate has received over 3.5 million hits since it started in 2008.

“Impact matters, and citations of publications are a vital metric for measuring effectiveness of a scientist. It’s great to be recognised by the Scopus Young Researchers Award 2013 as being someone whose work is being used and built upon by the world’s research community,” says Barry

“For me to be awarded the Life Sciences prize communicates clearly to potential future research stars — from aspiring high-school kids to postgraduate science students — that ecology and conservation biology is an exciting and high-impact discipline where you can make a real difference. It’s a great area in which to work.

“I always try to ensure that my research findings have the highest likelihood of reaching a wide audience. My view is that whether your goal as a scientist is to inform and fascinate the general public, or to change on-ground management practices and influence policy, quality publications and good communication are key.”

Below Barry explains some of his research and its impact with Professor Corey Bradshaw.

Dingo wrongly blamed for extinctions

Dingo , Fraser Island. Image - ogwens/Flickr

Dingo , Fraser Island. Image – ogwens/Flickr

Dingoes have been unjustly blamed for the extinctions on the Australian mainland of the Tasmanian tiger (or thylacine) and the Tasmanian devil, a University of Adelaide study has found.

In a paper published in the journal Ecology, the researchers say that despite popular belief that the Australian dingo was to blame for the demise of thylacines and devils on the mainland about 3000 years ago, in fact Aboriginal populations and a shift in climate were more likely responsible.

“Perhaps because the public perception of dingoes as ‘sheep-killers’ is so firmly entrenched, it has been commonly assumed that dingoes killed off the thylacines and devils on mainland Australia,” says researcher Dr Thomas Prowse, Research Associate in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the Environment Institute.

“There was anecdotal evidence too: both thylacines and devils lasted for over 40,000 years following the arrival of humans in Australia; their mainland extinction about 3000 years ago was just after dingoes were introduced to Australia; and the fact that thylacines and devils persisted on Tasmania, which was never colonised by dingoes.

“However, and unfortunately for the dingo, most people have overlooked that about the same time as dingoes came along, the climate changed rather abruptly and Aboriginal populations were going through a major period of intensification in terms of population growth and technological advances.”

The researchers built a complex series of mathematical models to recreate the dynamic interaction between the main potential drivers of extinction (dingoes, climate and humans), the long-term response of herbivore prey, and the viability of the thylacine and devil populations.

The models included interactions and competition between predators as well as the influence of climate on vegetation and prey populations.

The simulations showed that while dingoes had some impact, growth and development in human populations, possibly intensified by climate change, was the most likely extinction driver.

“Our multi-species models showed that dingoes could reduce thylacine and devil populations through both competition and direct predation, but there was low probability that they could have been the sole extinction driver,” Dr Prowse says.

“Our results support the notion that thylacines and devils persisted on Tasmania not because the dingo was absent, but because human density remained low there and Tasmania was less affected by abrupt climate changes.”

The study ‘An ecological regime shift resulting from disrupted predator-prey interactions in Holocene Australia’ also involved Professors Corey Bradshaw and Barry Brook from the University of Adelaide’s Environment Institute and Professor Chris Johnson from the University of Tasmania.

World’s rarest cat under threat from a changing climate.

Image – Iberia Nature

A new international study including members of the Environment Institute, Damien Fordham and Barry Brook, has found the world’s most endangered cat species, the Iberian lynx, could be driven to extinction within 50 years due to climate change.  Published today in Nature Climate Change,

“We show that climate change could lead to a rapid and severe decrease in lynx abundance in coming decades, and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years,” says lead author Dr Damien Fordham. “Current management efforts could be futile if they don’t take into account the combined effects of climate change, land use and prey abundance on population dynamics of the Iberian lynx.

Estimates indicate only 250 individuals survive in two populations on the Iberian Peninsula.  Its decline has been linked to sharp regional reductions in its main prey species, the European Rabbit.

“Models used to investigate how climate change will affect biodiversity have so far been unable to capture the dynamic and complex feedbacks of species interactions,” says Dr Miguel Araújo, senior author and Spanish Research Council (CSIC) Senior Researcher at the National Museum of Natural Sciences in Madrid. “By developing new forecasting methods, we have managed, for the first time, to simulate demographic responses of lynx to spatial patterns of rabbit abundance conditioned by disease, climate change, and land use modification.”

Since 1994 over €90 million has been spent on saving the Iberian lynx including reintroductions into suitable habitats. Although there is evidence that lynx numbers have increased in the last ten years in response to intensive management, this study warns that the ongoing conservation strategies could buy just a few decades before the species goes extinct. This study is the most comprehensive conservation-management model yet developed of the effects of climate change on a predator and its prey.

CSIC researcher at the Estación Biológica de Doñana in Seville, Dr Alejandro Rodríguez, says: “Habitat in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula, where the two existing populations of lynx persist, is most likely to be inhospitable to lynx by the middle of this century.”

“That the numbers of Iberian lynx are currently increasing suggests that intensive management of habitat and rabbit populations have worked as effective short-term conservation strategies, but small population size means that the species is still threatened and susceptible to future population declines,” says Professor Barry Brook, Chair of Climate Science at the University of Adelaide. “This means that the species is extremely vulnerable to shifts in habitat quality or to changes in the abundance of their rabbit prey due to climate change.”

The researchers say climate-change-informed decisions should be a common part of conservation practice.

Read the publication here.

Social media: how to get your message across

Environment Institute member Professor Barry Brook talks about social media and how he uses it to promote or publicise articles, papers or scientific research.

Social media provides a two-way communication system in which the user is empowered to say what they think, or defend a position against a topic that could be quite controversial such as climate change, genetic modification, or nanotechnology.

Social media can also be used to ‘get your content out there, which is then often picked up by more traditional media forms‘, allowing for greater exposure.

Barry utilises his blog Brave New Climate and Twitter to communicate with his audience.

For more of Barry’s thoughts, watch the video below.

About the Academic

Professor Barry Brook is a leading environmental scientist, holding the Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change at the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and is also Director of Climate Science at the University of Adelaide’s Environment Institute.

He has published three books, 250 refereed scientific papers (list here), is an ISI highly cited researcher, and regularly writes popular articles for the media.

He runs a popular climate science and energy options blog at http://bravenewclimate.com. He has written a popular book on sustainable nuclear energy, is an International Award Committee member for the Global Energy Prize, and considers himself a ‘Promethean environmentalist’ (seeking effective techno-fixes to solve entrenched sustainability problems).

New paper: Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

A new paper involving Environment Institute members Corey Bradshaw and Barry W. Brook has recently been published in the journal Energy.

The paper, titled Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis, examines the possibilities for sustainable energy generation in South Korea.

ABSTRACT

To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts.

Visit ScienceDirect to find out more.

New study suggests global uniform biodiversity tipping point not backed by science

A group of international ecological scientists, led by Environment Institute member Professor Barry Brook, have rejected a doomsday-like scenario of sudden, irreversible change to the Earth’s ecology.

In a paper recently published in the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution, the scientists from Australia, US and UK argue that global-scale ecological tipping points are unlikely and that ecological change over large areas seem to follow a more gradual, smooth pattern.

This opposes recent efforts to define ‘planetary tipping points’ – critical levels of biodiversity loss or land-use change that would have global effect – with important implications for science and policy-makers.

Lead author, Professor Barry Brook

Lead author, Professor Barry Brook

“This is good news because it says that we might avoid the doom-and-gloom scenario of abrupt, irreversible change,” says Professor Barry Brook, lead author of the paper and Director of Climate Science at the University of Adelaide. “A focus on planetary tipping points may both distract from the vast ecological transformations that have already occurred, and lead to unjustified fatalism about the catastrophic effects of tipping points.

“An emphasis on a point of no return is not particularly helpful for bringing about the conservation action we need. We must continue to seek to reduce our impacts on the global ecology without undue attention on trying to avoid arbitrary thresholds.”

A tipping point occurs when an ecosystem attribute such as species abundance or carbon sequestration responds rapidly and possibly irreversibly to a human pressure like land-use change or climate change.

Many local and regional-level ecosystems, such as lakes and grasslands, are known to behave this way. A planetary tipping point, the authors suggest, could theoretically occur if ecosystems across Earth respond in similar ways to the same human pressures, or if there are strong connections between continents that allow for rapid diffusion of impacts across the planet.

The scientists examined four principal drivers of terrestrial ecosystem change – climate change, land-use change, habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss – and found they were unlikely to induce global tipping points.

The paper titled ‘Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?’ also involves Erle C. Ellis (University of Maryland), Michael P. Perring (University of Western Australia), Anson W. Mackay (University College London) and Linus Blomqvist (Breakthrough Institute).

Read the full media release to find out more.

Download the paper.

Read Barry Brook & Corey Bradshaw’s article on The Conversation regarding this research.

New paper lends support that a changing climate is causing species distribution changes in the alpine Sikkim Himalaya

A new paper involving Environment Institute member Barry Brook as well as Yasmeen Telwala (University of Dehli), Kumar Manish (University of Dehli) and Maharaj K Pandit (University of Dehli & National University of Singapore) has recently been published in the journal PLoS One.

The paper titled ‘Climate-Induced Elevational Range Shifts and Increase in Plant Species Richness in a Himalayan Biodiversity Epicentre’ uses historical and recent data on temperature and local species’ elevational ranges to perform a correlative study in the two alpine valleys of Sikkim Himalaya.

Flora of major mountain ranges are highly sensitive to climate change and mountains serve as suitable observation sites for tracing climate-induced biological response. The Himalaya constitute an important global biodiversity hotspot, yet studies on species’ response to climate change from this region are lacking.

The study shows that the ongoing warming in the alpine Sikkim Himalaya has transformed the plant assemblages and lends support to the hypothesis that changing climate is causing species distribution changes.

Read the paper to find out more.

 

 

New Paper – No need for disease: testing extinction hypotheses for the thylacine using multi-species metamodels

A new paper involving Environment Institute members Thomas Prowse, Corey Bradshaw (also SARDI), Michael Watts and Barry Brook as well as Christopher Johnson (University of Tasmania), Robert Lacy (Chicago Zoological Society) and John Pollak (Cornell University) has recently been published in the Journal of Animal Ecology.

The paper titled ‘No need for disease: testing extinction hypotheses for the thylacine using multi-species metamodels’ designed a new population viability approach (PVA) that includes species interactions explicitly by networking species models within a single ‘metamodel’.

Thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalusImage: Kelly Garbato

Thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalus
Image: Kelly Garbato (Flikr)

Population viability analysis (PVA) is used to assess the extinction risk of threatened species and to evaluate different management strategies. However, conventional PVA neglects important biotic interactions and therefore can fail to identify important threatening processes.

This study demonstrates the utility of PVA metamodels by using them to reinterpret the extinction of the carnivorous, marsupial thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalus (Tasmanian Tiger) in Tasmania. In particular, they test the claim that well-documented impacts of European settlement cannot account for this extinction and that an unknown disease must have been an additional and necessary cause.

Read the paper to find out more.